Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Justin Upton (Arizona) for Martin Prado (Atlanta)

Trade Details:

January 24, 2013

Arizona receives from Atlanta:

  • Martin Prado (3B)
  • Randall Delgado (P)
  • Brandon Drury (2B)
  • Nick Ahmed (SS)
  • Zeke Spruill (P)
Atlanta received from Arizona:
  • Justin Upton (OF)
  • Chris Johnson (3B)
By the time this trade was consummated, Arizona was forced to give up the best player on their team because of a fractured relationship.  Teams were aware of this and there was no chance for the Diamondbacks to get back the actual value for a player of Justin Upton's talent.  Instead they were forced to take back a starting third baseman/outfielder and a handful of minor league talent.  

The total WAR breakdown for each team is below:

Arizona - 12.2 
Prado (3.7 2013-2014)
Delgado (1.7 2013-2018)
Drury (1.3 2015-2017)
Ahmed (6.0 2014-2018)
Spruill (-0.5 2013-2014)

Atlanta - 6.2 
Upton (5.7 2013-2014)
Johnson (0.5 2013-2015)

The problem with evaluating this trade at face value is the obvious fact that the two main pieces in the trade, Upton and Prado, only lasted two seasons with their new teams.  My blog will show that a trade is successful if it produces long-term results.  Justin Upton was the future of the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Replacing him with Martin Prado for two years cannot be what the front-office was hoping to get for a former number one overall pick that was only 25 years old when the trade was completed.  However, Atlanta was only able to enjoy Upton's talents for two years.  

Cascade Trade:
December 19, 2014

Atlanta receives from San Diego:
  • Max Fried (P)
  • Dustin Peterson (OF)
  • Jace Peterson (INF/OF)
  • Mallex Smith (OF)
San Diego receives from Atlanta:
  • Justin Upton (OF)
  • Aaron Northcut (P)
Atlanta received two very productive years from Justin Upton (56 HRs and 172 RBIs) and sought to trade him with one year left on his contract at $14.5million.  Max Fried is still a prospect in the Atlanta system, Dustin Peterson was waived after getting all of 2 major league at-bats with Atlanta, and Jace Peterson played with Atlanta for 3 seasons as a utility player with a batting average of .240 and producing a total of 15 HRs and 98 RBIs before leaving for the Yankees in 2018.  

Atlanta's WAR received from the Justin Upton Padres trade are broken down below:

Total: 1.5
Fried (0.7 2017-2018)
D. Peterson (-0.1 2018)
J. Peterson (-0.1 2015-2017)
Smith (1.0 2015)

Mallex Smith was traded to Seattle in 2017 for two prospects, Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows.  Burrows is still in the Braves low farm system.  Gohara joins Fried as one of the top prospects in Atlanta's farm system, which is considered one of the best in all of baseball.  

An interesting side note to the Upton trade is that the Braves took the money saved by trading Upton and made a trade with Arizona to take on the salary of an injured Bronson Arroyo and the Diamondback's top pick, Touki Toussaint.  Toussaint is another one of the Braves top prospects.  

Cascade Trade #2
July 31, 2014

Arizona receives from New York Yankees:
  • Peter O'Brien (OF/C)
New York Yankees receive from Arizona:
  • Martin Prado (3B/OF)
After trading for Prado, the Diamonbacks signed him to a large contract.  Two years later, the team was ready to get out from under the contract and they traded him to the Yankees for a power-hitting catcher named Peter O'Brien.  O'Brien hit 120 home runs in 4 minor league seasons.  When Arizona called him up to the majors over two years, he no longer played catcher and ended his tenure as a Diamondback with appearances in 36 games, a batting average of .176, and a total of 6 home runs.  O'Brien was traded by 2017 for a low level prospect.  

The Diamondback's WAR as a result of the O'Brien trade was reduced by 0.5.  

Cascade Trade #3
February 20, 2018

Arizona receives from New York Yankees:
  • Taylor Widener (P)
New York Yankees receive from Arizona:
  • Brandon Drury (INF/OF)
Drury was part of a 3-team trade that also included sending one of the top Arizona pitching prospects to Tampa Bay for Steven Souza Jr.  Drury was the odd-man out in Arizona in a clogged middle infield.  Widener is considered one of the top prospects in the Diamondbacks' lightly regarded farm system.  


Current Status of the Trade:
The only players remaining on the receiving teams are Nick Ahmed and Randall Delgado.  Delgado was released during the 2018 season but was brought back on a minor league contract in August.  Ahmed has developed into one of the top defensive short stops in the National League.  

While Arizona has the only starter left from the original trade, Atlanta has a stronger talent pool due to the Upton/Prado trade. Arizona has Ahmed along with Delgado and Widener in the minors as a result of the trade.  Atlanta has Max Fried, Luiz Gohara, and indirectly, Touki Toussaint, in their very deep farm system as a result of the Upton trade.  The two years the Braves got from Upton were also more productive than the two years the Diamondbacks got from Prado.  At the time of the trade, many pundits felt like the Diamondbacks did not get a good return from Upton.  Six seasons later, the trade is still paying off for Atlanta while the Diamondbacks are barely still realizing any proceeds from the trade.  

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